Papelbon’s First Four-Game Stretch Without A Strikeout

In blowing his second straight save tonight (How the hell do you walk Carlos Gomez?), Jonathan Papelbon now has only one strikeout in his last 5.2 innings pitched and is on a four-game stretch without a punchout.

He has only gone three consecutive games pitched without a K one other time in his career, last year from September 22nd to the 28th (2.1 IP).

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 5 IP, 8 BB, 2 H

The disgusting line of 5 IP, 8 BB, 2 H has only been accomplished four other times in major league history…

Randy Johnson, 05-18-1997
Stan Williams, 06-29-1962
Darren Dreifort, 04-07-2000
William Van Landingham, 06-15-1997

Surprisingly, the worst anyone faired was Randy Johnson with 4 earned runs allowed. Williams allowed 3 ER, Dreifort 2 ER, with Van Landingham and Matsuzaka 1 ER each.

Red Sox Starting Pitching

Below is a graph of the Pure Quality Starts log for the Red Sox 5 main starting pitchers — Beckett, Matsuzaka, Buchholz, Lester and Wakefield.  As you can see, the starts have been really awesome of late, it’s only too bad that some of the starts came during a really rough stretch for the Sox hitters.

Here is how PSQ works:

How is PQS different? The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs - is overly simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James’ Game Score methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.

In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his “PQS Score” over time, we can follow his progress. Here are the criteria…

1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. For a 6 IP performance, the pitcher gets 1 point. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he posted.

2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of innings pitched. This measures hit prevention and earns him 1 point.

3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched (IP minus K must be 2 or less). This measures dominance and earns him 1 point.

4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command and earns him 1 point.

5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park and earns him 1 point.

5 and 4 points are DOMINANT starts, 3 and 2 points are AVERAGE starts, 1 and 0 points are DISASTER starts.

Pitch f/x Data of Justin Masterson’s Insane Sinker

6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 4 K

Here is the Pitch f/x data from Justin Masterson’s great major league debut this afternoon. He basically threw 4 pitches, a slider, a few change-ups, a regular sinker, and then some variation that resulted in an insane sinker.

The “regular” sinker is in the green circle (circle change movement), while the super sinker is the cluster with even more run in on right handed batters with negative vertical break.

Masterson mixed speeds well and generally worked in the lower half of the strike zone. Mike Napoli hit a home run to RCF on a slider that was aided by a gusting wind (still a bomb). Masterson will return to the minors, but there is a good chance that he is a key member of the bullpen at some point this summer. The Red Sox will give him every opportunity to continue to start in the future.

Third Top Red Sox Prospect Could Have Major Arm Injury

The Red Sox have had good luck with avoiding major injuries to young pitchers in the big leagues or on the cusp like Jonathan Papelbon, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, and Michael Bowden.

Unfortunately, the next wave of highly anticipated pitching talent has not been as fortunate.

Last season, 2006 high school draft pick Caleb Clay had Tommy John surgery on his pitching arm. Reports are his is recovering well and should be back in action next year.

Earlier this season, 2007 high school draft pick Austin Bailey tore his labrum. This is a devastating shoulder injury that is probably the hardest injury to recover from.

And today there are whispers on Sox Prospects that 2007 first round pick Nick Hagadone could be having Tommy John surgery soon. The flame throwing lefty out of the University of Washington is the best pitching prospect the Red Sox have at the lower levels of the minor leagues. Again, this is still a rumor, but Hagadone did have to leave his last start and I trust the sources.

Hopefully these players all recover fully, and others take this opportunity to climb up the prospect rankings.

Top Prospect Justin Masterson to Make Red Sox Debut Tomorrow

The Red Sox #4 prospect Justin Masterson will be making his major league debut tomorrow afternoon at Fenway Park according to The Portland Press Herald.

Masterson throws one of the most devastating sinkers in professional baseball.

In 19 innings in AA this year he’s struck out 23 while walking 5.  His ERA is a minuscule 0.95.

He sports a freakish 3.57 ground outs to air outs ratio.

AL All-Star Team Preview

Using BaseRuns, here are the leaders at each position in the American League. Of course this doesn’t take into account defense, but I think it gives a fair assessment of who is raking in the AL.

AL All-Star 1st Team
		G	PA		BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA		BsR	/PA		IsoP	IsoD	SecA	BABIP		BB%	K%	BB/K
1B	Carlos Guillen	19	82		.314	.415	.543	.957	.323		15.1	.18		.229	.101	.429	.322		15%	10%	1.50
2B	Dustin Pedroia	22	100		.364	.418	.523	.941	.319		19.2	.19		.159	.054	.295	.403		9%	10%	0.90
3B	Kevin Youkilis	21	95		.354	.421	.561	.982	.330		18.7	.20		.183	.067	.317	.380		10%	10%	1.00
SS	Edgar Renteria	21	89		.333	.371	.488	.859	.289		13.6	.15		.155	.038	.214	.357		6%	12%	0.45
C	A.J. Pierzynski	15	66		.344	.394	.590	.984	.325		12.5	.19		.246	.050	.328	.333		2%	6%	0.25
CF	Josh Hamilton	21	99		.306	.364	.553	.917	.302		16.6	.17		.235	.058	.365	.314		9%	11%	0.82
LF	Manny Ramirez	21	88		.342	.409	.684	1.093	.355		19.1	.22		.329	.067	.456	.412		7%	26%	0.27
RF	Nick Markakis	20	85		.313	.459	.493	.951	.330		16.9	.20		.179	.146	.478	.400		19%	23%	0.84
DH	Hideki Matsui	20	79		.328	.430	.522	.953	.324		15.0	.19		.194	.102	.373	.339		10%	10%	1.00
AL All-Star 2nd Team
		G	PA		BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA		BsR	/PA		IsoP	IsoD	SecA	BABIP		BB%	K%	BB/K
1B	Ryan Garko	20	83		.294	.422	.456	.878	.304		14.2	.17		.162	.128	.382	.316		16%	11%	1.44
2B	Aaron Hill	21	92		.309	.367	.457	.823	.279		13.6	.15		.148	.058	.272	.333		7%	11%	0.60
3B	Chone Figgins	21	96		.363	.469	.413	.881	.314		18.2	.19		.050	.106	.263	.446		15%	16%	0.93
SS	Bobby Crosby	21	91		.310	.363	.464	.827	.279		13.1	.14		.155	.053	.238	.333		8%	11%	0.70
C	Kurt Suzuki	19	76		.319	.382	.362	.744	.262		8.9	.12		.043	.063	.130	.367		5%	12%	0.44
CF	Jacoby Ellsbury	20	68		.308	.456	.538	.994	.340		16.0	.23		.212	.148	.673	.295		18%	7%	2.40
LF	Raul Ibanez	21	91		.305	.374	.561	.935	.309		14.3	.16		.244	.069	.366	.294		4%	11%	0.33
RF	Alex Rios	20	90		.303	.400	.447	.847	.292		14.6	.16		.145	.097	.329	.375		13%	20%	0.67
DH	Milton Bradley	19	80		.328	.425	.478	.903	.311		14.0	.18		.149	.097	.299	.389		13%	15%	0.83

New Pitch F/X tool debuted

Here: http://38.99.108.6/pfx/

Dan Brooks, or “Jnai” on SoSH, has created this tool that spiders the Pitch F/X data live from MLB.com and creates graphs instantaneously.  All you have do is pick the date, the game, and the pitcher you want to look at.  This is an invaluable tool for those interested in the blossoming area of information.  The site is only in it’s infancy and there are improvements being made on it daily.

I’m sure I will be talking more about this in the future.

Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz to Retire… after 2013

“Why isn’t it going to work out? Of course it’s going to work out. I don’t need a list of teams,” Manny Ramirez said before playing ninth-inning hero in last night’s 6-4, come-from-behind Red Sox win against the Cleveland Indians. “Everybody knows it’s going to work out. A list (of alternative teams)? For what?”

“I’m just going to play and have fun. At the end of the year it’s going to be (the Red Sox) who will make the decision not me. Why would I want to talk to them now? It’s the same situation as (catcher Jason Varitek), because he’s a free agent. Just play the game and whatever happens will happen.”

“Like I told you, I’m going to play six years (in Boston), David (Ortiz) is going to play six years,” Ramirez said, “and then we’re going to retire.”

Manny: Six more years

It’s super that Manny is showing some Boston pride while hitting the shit out of the ball, but I’m betting he will be wanting to see a list of teams once he realizes Theo Epstein will not be dishing out $20M a year for his age 37-41 seasons. If Ramirez has a “Ramirez” season this year, I think the Sox will pick up his option for 2009 or maybe work out of a 2-year deal for a discount on the $40M in options.

Five more years after this one will bring Ortiz through his age 37 season. That would mean playing out his current contract ($12.5M/yr), having his 2011 option picked up ($12.5M), and being signed for two more.

Does this mean no Mark Teixeira?

David Ortiz’s Worst 12 Game Stretch as a Red Sox Player

Gross Production Average, a variation of OPS, but more accurate and easier to interpret. The exact formula is (OBP*1.8+SLG)/4, adjusted for ballpark factor. The scale of GPA is similar to BA: .200 is lousy, .265 is around average and .300 is a star.

One of my favorite stats since it is quick and easy, yet it gives you a good three digit summery of a player’s offensive skills. Since David Ortiz is off to a miserable start to this season, I decided to use GPA to see if this is his worst 12 game stretch as a Red Sox player (749 games).

It is, by a lot.

Of course, his .063 Batting Average on Balls in Play is also the lowest for him in a 12 game stretch, by .055. That’s some incredibly poor luck, as Ortiz owns a career .310 BABIP… however we all know it is only a matter of time before his numbers start to normalize and Ortiz in the batter’s box puts the fear of God in opponents.