Rules of Spring Training and Small Sample Sizes

The first rule of spring training: The stats don’t mean shit for a veteran player

The second rule of spring training: The stats don’t mean shit for a prospect

The third rule of spring training: The only things that do matter is avoiding injuries and seeing how a prospect carries himself

That said, let’s take a peek some stats (WARNING SMALL SAMPLE SIZE [but that's all we have]).

On redsoxstats.com I am posting daily updates of spring training stats just as I do during the regular season. The only change I have to make is substituting Runs Created for BaseRuns, since the BaseRuns formula needs some stats that aren’t readily available in the spring. Other than that, everything is included.

I find it amusing that with one of the main media topics this spring being the catching in the system after Jason Varitek, the two hottest hitters out of the gate have been George Kottaras and Dusty Brown. Kot has a 2.083 OPS in 8 plate appearances, with Dusty right on his heals at 1.667 after 9. It’s too bad we can’t morph Brown’s defense and arm with Kottaras’ batting eye and overall approach; that way we wouldn’t have to worry about handing Varitek a multiyear contract to get the privilege of watching him completely fall apart.

In the not-so-good department, Jacoby Ellsbury is giving a new meaning to the word ‘suck’. After 17 plate appearances he is hitting .063/.158/.125, an unbelievable .283 OPS. Not the slump to want to start your season off with, spring training or not. But at least he is playing, Coco Crisp has been in the trainers room more than he has been in trade rumors this spring and that’s not what we need.

Glancing at the pitching, 9 of the 25 pitchers we have used have a WHIP over 2.00 and 9 have a WHIP of 1.00 or under. Of course no one has thrown more than 6 innings. The good news is that only notable players that have been letting on such an obscene numbers of base runners are Jon Lester and Craig Hansen, both of whom are no stranger to pitching with men on base.

One of my first posts in this blog was about the acquisition of David Aardsma and he is having a nice spring so far. 3IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 2 K, 0 BB. He is pitching again today and I’m hoping he throws well again. Since he is out of options he needs to win a spot on our roster or he is up for grabs. With his type of arm, I say you let him pitch himself off the team before you allow him to get away without seeing what John Farrell can do with him.