Pitch f/x Data of Justin Masterson’s Insane Sinker

6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 4 K

Here is the Pitch f/x data from Justin Masterson’s great major league debut this afternoon. He basically threw 4 pitches, a slider, a few change-ups, a regular sinker, and then some variation that resulted in an insane sinker.

The “regular” sinker is in the green circle (circle change movement), while the super sinker is the cluster with even more run in on right handed batters with negative vertical break.

Masterson mixed speeds well and generally worked in the lower half of the strike zone. Mike Napoli hit a home run to RCF on a slider that was aided by a gusting wind (still a bomb). Masterson will return to the minors, but there is a good chance that he is a key member of the bullpen at some point this summer. The Red Sox will give him every opportunity to continue to start in the future.

Third Top Red Sox Prospect Could Have Major Arm Injury

The Red Sox have had good luck with avoiding major injuries to young pitchers in the big leagues or on the cusp like Jonathan Papelbon, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, and Michael Bowden.

Unfortunately, the next wave of highly anticipated pitching talent has not been as fortunate.

Last season, 2006 high school draft pick Caleb Clay had Tommy John surgery on his pitching arm. Reports are his is recovering well and should be back in action next year.

Earlier this season, 2007 high school draft pick Austin Bailey tore his labrum. This is a devastating shoulder injury that is probably the hardest injury to recover from.

And today there are whispers on Sox Prospects that 2007 first round pick Nick Hagadone could be having Tommy John surgery soon. The flame throwing lefty out of the University of Washington is the best pitching prospect the Red Sox have at the lower levels of the minor leagues. Again, this is still a rumor, but Hagadone did have to leave his last start and I trust the sources.

Hopefully these players all recover fully, and others take this opportunity to climb up the prospect rankings.

Top Prospect Justin Masterson to Make Red Sox Debut Tomorrow

The Red Sox #4 prospect Justin Masterson will be making his major league debut tomorrow afternoon at Fenway Park according to The Portland Press Herald.

Masterson throws one of the most devastating sinkers in professional baseball.

In 19 innings in AA this year he’s struck out 23 while walking 5.  His ERA is a minuscule 0.95.

He sports a freakish 3.57 ground outs to air outs ratio.

AL All-Star Team Preview

Using BaseRuns, here are the leaders at each position in the American League. Of course this doesn’t take into account defense, but I think it gives a fair assessment of who is raking in the AL.

AL All-Star 1st Team
		G	PA		BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA		BsR	/PA		IsoP	IsoD	SecA	BABIP		BB%	K%	BB/K
1B	Carlos Guillen	19	82		.314	.415	.543	.957	.323		15.1	.18		.229	.101	.429	.322		15%	10%	1.50
2B	Dustin Pedroia	22	100		.364	.418	.523	.941	.319		19.2	.19		.159	.054	.295	.403		9%	10%	0.90
3B	Kevin Youkilis	21	95		.354	.421	.561	.982	.330		18.7	.20		.183	.067	.317	.380		10%	10%	1.00
SS	Edgar Renteria	21	89		.333	.371	.488	.859	.289		13.6	.15		.155	.038	.214	.357		6%	12%	0.45
C	A.J. Pierzynski	15	66		.344	.394	.590	.984	.325		12.5	.19		.246	.050	.328	.333		2%	6%	0.25
CF	Josh Hamilton	21	99		.306	.364	.553	.917	.302		16.6	.17		.235	.058	.365	.314		9%	11%	0.82
LF	Manny Ramirez	21	88		.342	.409	.684	1.093	.355		19.1	.22		.329	.067	.456	.412		7%	26%	0.27
RF	Nick Markakis	20	85		.313	.459	.493	.951	.330		16.9	.20		.179	.146	.478	.400		19%	23%	0.84
DH	Hideki Matsui	20	79		.328	.430	.522	.953	.324		15.0	.19		.194	.102	.373	.339		10%	10%	1.00
AL All-Star 2nd Team
		G	PA		BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA		BsR	/PA		IsoP	IsoD	SecA	BABIP		BB%	K%	BB/K
1B	Ryan Garko	20	83		.294	.422	.456	.878	.304		14.2	.17		.162	.128	.382	.316		16%	11%	1.44
2B	Aaron Hill	21	92		.309	.367	.457	.823	.279		13.6	.15		.148	.058	.272	.333		7%	11%	0.60
3B	Chone Figgins	21	96		.363	.469	.413	.881	.314		18.2	.19		.050	.106	.263	.446		15%	16%	0.93
SS	Bobby Crosby	21	91		.310	.363	.464	.827	.279		13.1	.14		.155	.053	.238	.333		8%	11%	0.70
C	Kurt Suzuki	19	76		.319	.382	.362	.744	.262		8.9	.12		.043	.063	.130	.367		5%	12%	0.44
CF	Jacoby Ellsbury	20	68		.308	.456	.538	.994	.340		16.0	.23		.212	.148	.673	.295		18%	7%	2.40
LF	Raul Ibanez	21	91		.305	.374	.561	.935	.309		14.3	.16		.244	.069	.366	.294		4%	11%	0.33
RF	Alex Rios	20	90		.303	.400	.447	.847	.292		14.6	.16		.145	.097	.329	.375		13%	20%	0.67
DH	Milton Bradley	19	80		.328	.425	.478	.903	.311		14.0	.18		.149	.097	.299	.389		13%	15%	0.83

New Pitch F/X tool debuted

Here: http://38.99.108.6/pfx/

Dan Brooks, or “Jnai” on SoSH, has created this tool that spiders the Pitch F/X data live from MLB.com and creates graphs instantaneously.  All you have do is pick the date, the game, and the pitcher you want to look at.  This is an invaluable tool for those interested in the blossoming area of information.  The site is only in it’s infancy and there are improvements being made on it daily.

I’m sure I will be talking more about this in the future.

Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz to Retire… after 2013

“Why isn’t it going to work out? Of course it’s going to work out. I don’t need a list of teams,” Manny Ramirez said before playing ninth-inning hero in last night’s 6-4, come-from-behind Red Sox win against the Cleveland Indians. “Everybody knows it’s going to work out. A list (of alternative teams)? For what?”

“I’m just going to play and have fun. At the end of the year it’s going to be (the Red Sox) who will make the decision not me. Why would I want to talk to them now? It’s the same situation as (catcher Jason Varitek), because he’s a free agent. Just play the game and whatever happens will happen.”

“Like I told you, I’m going to play six years (in Boston), David (Ortiz) is going to play six years,” Ramirez said, “and then we’re going to retire.”

Manny: Six more years

It’s super that Manny is showing some Boston pride while hitting the shit out of the ball, but I’m betting he will be wanting to see a list of teams once he realizes Theo Epstein will not be dishing out $20M a year for his age 37-41 seasons. If Ramirez has a “Ramirez” season this year, I think the Sox will pick up his option for 2009 or maybe work out of a 2-year deal for a discount on the $40M in options.

Five more years after this one will bring Ortiz through his age 37 season. That would mean playing out his current contract ($12.5M/yr), having his 2011 option picked up ($12.5M), and being signed for two more.

Does this mean no Mark Teixeira?

David Ortiz’s Worst 12 Game Stretch as a Red Sox Player

Gross Production Average, a variation of OPS, but more accurate and easier to interpret. The exact formula is (OBP*1.8+SLG)/4, adjusted for ballpark factor. The scale of GPA is similar to BA: .200 is lousy, .265 is around average and .300 is a star.

One of my favorite stats since it is quick and easy, yet it gives you a good three digit summery of a player’s offensive skills. Since David Ortiz is off to a miserable start to this season, I decided to use GPA to see if this is his worst 12 game stretch as a Red Sox player (749 games).

It is, by a lot.

Of course, his .063 Batting Average on Balls in Play is also the lowest for him in a 12 game stretch, by .055. That’s some incredibly poor luck, as Ortiz owns a career .310 BABIP… however we all know it is only a matter of time before his numbers start to normalize and Ortiz in the batter’s box puts the fear of God in opponents.

Red Sox Trade SS Christian Lara to Dodgers for RP Eric Hull

Last week the Los Angeles Dodgers designated relief pitcher Eric Hull for assignment; today he has been traded to the Red Sox for single-A shortstop Christian Lara and cash considerations.

The right-hander Hull has only 6.2 major league innings under his belt as he enters his age 28 season. In 146.2 IP in AAA he has accumulated these rate stats:

0.6 HR/9
4.7 BB/9
10.2 K/9
2.2 K/BB

[Though those numbers were better in his 65.2 IP last season, 3.1 K/BB, 11.1 K/9]

While his strikeout numbers are obviously good, his control issues seem to make him someone Theo Epstein would usually avoid, especially for an older player.

I think this trade is more about getting the best deal we could for Lara, who was in a fight for playing time with more highly regarded middle infield prospects.

Lara is a good fielding shortstop but never developed the contact or on-base skills needed to make him a real prospect because of his lack of power.

Good First Outing for Clay Buchholz (pitch f/x)

5 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 7 K, 0 HR

Mixing up his fastball, curve, change-up and slider, Clay Buchholz got off to a good start in 2008 even though the defense (Sean Casey at 1b, Manny Ramirez in LF) failed him.

Clay’s fastball was sitting 93-95, curve 75-77, change-up 76-80, and slider 82-85. All with good control as he threw 64% strikes.

Also encouraging was the way he was mixing up his pitches, something that we need to watch with Jason Varitek. Buchholz, like Daisuke Matsuzaka, should really be “pitching backwards” by setting up their fastballs with off-speed stuff.

One fun thing to look at with Buchholz is the movement of his devastating change-up. It falls into the aqua circle, which usually indicates a cutter, because it doesn’t have the classic tailing movement, it just drops straight off the table.

Please excuse my photoshop-shrunken graphs; I need to resize them in Excel to eventually fit in the blog posts.

Red Sox Minor Leaguers Open Up Tonight

Pawtucket - Bartolo Colon vs. Indianapolis - 7:05 pm
Portland - Justin Masterson @ New Britain - 6:05 pm
Lancaster - Travis Beazley @ High Desert - 10:05 pm
Greenville - Chris Province vs. Kannapolis - 7:00 pm

Bartolo Colon opens up for the PawSox and if everything goes well he could be exchanging spots with Clay Buchholz relatively soon. With Colon healthy the big club should get as much out of the former Cy Young winner as they can. This will also allow them to be extra cautious with Buchholz for a few weeks/months.

Justin Masterson is the best prospect throwing tonight, it is somewhat surprising that he is back in Double-A to start the season, but only expect him to get a few starts before he is bumped up.

Travis Beazley is a 24-year old control artist who utilizes many pitches in his arsenal since he doesn’t have a strong fastball. He should be in Lancaster for at least the first half of the season.

Chris Province is going to be a future bullpen arm; however the Red Sox will go their usual route and have him start to work on his secondary pitches (slider). This is the same approach they have used with another college closer we all know… Jonathan Papelbon. Province can run his fastball up there in the mid-to-high 90’s.