Tool used: Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis
Based on current on-base and slugging percentages, the lineup optimization tool returns this as the best Red Sox lineup they could play right now:
Pedroia
Youkilis
Drew
Bay
Lowell
Green
Ellsbury
Varitek
Ortiz
That is fairly close to the new Red Sox lineup Terry Francona is using, except Francona has David Ortiz batting sixth.
I guess the only things taking away from a perfect Red Sox Opening Day were Jacoby Ellsbury’s quick 0-4 in which he only saw 12 pitches total and Hideki Okajima hitting and walking his first two batters. Other than that there isn’t much to complain about.
Every hitter 2 though 9 got their first hit of the season out of the way, and Jason Bay got screwed out of a 2-3 day when Carl Crawford trapped a ball and then threw out Kevin Youkilis at third for a fielder’s choice.
Josh Beckett was just painting all day, he lost his curveball for an inning there, but other than that he was dominant.
Jonathan Papelbon was back up to 95 MPH on the gun after sitting in the low 90’s all spring.
Many people, including myself, expect a nice jump from Jacoby Ellsbury this year in terms of consistency, however, putting him down at the bottom of the order does give him a permanent green light to try and steal bases with the catcher at bat before the meat of the order.
In lineup optimization your leadoff hitter should be your third best hitter after the cleanup and two-hole hitters. Ellsbury is not that, even with his “classic leadoff skills.” Pedroia will not be moved from the two spot, Ortiz, Bay, Youkilis, and maybe even Teixeira will not be moved to the top either. That leaves Drew, whose never had a fulltime shot at leadoff, but with his OBP in front of the heart of the order would be very productive.
Of course Francona drools at the thought of Ellsbury’s speed leading off, so expecting a change is nothing more than a passing thought.
One thing is clear though, another year with a leadoff OPS below .700, or even .750, should not be acceptable.
Red Sox vs. Oakland, March 25, 6AM ET
Pedroia 2B
Youkilis 1B
Ortiz DH
Ramirez LF
Lowell 3B
Drew RF
Varitek C
Ellsbury CF
Lugo SS
Matsuzaka SP
Really, this is an excellent lineup. OBP masters at the top, mashers in the middle, and 2 speed guys at the bottom that can make things happen on the base paths. Ellsbury wouldn’t have free reign to steal if he was table setting for Ortiz and Ramirez, this should maximized his value while taking a bit of pressure off the rookie CF.
Three hours till game time, tick tick tick…
Tonight’s game against Northeastern will be broadcast on WEEI, while both boxscores will be available at MLB.com. Welcome to 2008, folks.
| Boston College, 1:05pm | Northeastern, 6:05pm | |
| Jacoby Ellsbury, CF | Coco Crisp, CF | |
| Dustin Pedroia, 2B | Alex Cora, 2B | |
| David Ortiz, DH | J.D. Drew, RF | |
| Mike Lowell, 3B | Manny Ramirez, DH | |
| Jason Varitek, C | Sean Casey, 1B | |
| Kevin Youkilis, 1B | Chris Carter, LF | |
| Julio Lugo, SS | Doug Mirabelli, C | |
| Bobby Kielty, RF | Jed Lowrie, SS | |
| Brandon Moss, LF | Keith Ginter, 3B | |
| Josh Beckett | Justin Masterson | |
| Kyle Snyder | Craig Hansen | |
| Javier Lopez | Michael Bowden | |
| Manny Delcarmen | Craig Breslow | |
| Bryan Corey | Hunter Jones | |
| Kyle Jackson | ||
Using the information I could find listed on the web, I put together a listing of all exhibition games against Major League and Japanese teams that will be on radio, TV, or both. So far only the first four games have expected pitchers.
| Thursday, Feb. 28 | Sox vs. N’eastern | 6:00p | WEEI | |||
| Friday, Feb. 29 | Sox vs. Twins | 7:00p | WRKO | NESN | ||
| Saturday, Mar. 1 | Sox vs. Twins | 1:00p | WRKO | |||
| Sunday, Mar. 2 | Sox vs. Twins | 1:00p | WRKO | NESN | ||
| Wed., Mar. 5 | Sox vs. Reds | 1:00p | WEEI | |||
| Thursday, Mar. 6 | Sox vs. Dodgers | 1:00p | ESPN | |||
| Saturday, Mar. 8 | Sox vs. Marlins | 1:00p | WRKO | |||
| Sunday, Mar. 9 | Sox vs. Dodgers | 1:00p | WRKO | NESN | ||
| Saturday, Mar. 15 | Sox vs. Reds | 1:00p | WRKO | |||
| Sunday, Mar. 16 | Sox vs. Pirates | 1:00p | WRKO | NESN | ||
| Monday, Mar. 17 | Sox vs. Yankees | 1:15p | NESN | |||
| Wednesday, Mar. 19 | Sox vs. Jays | 12:00p | WEEI | NESN | ESPN | |
| Friday, Mar. 21 | Sox vs. NPB Japan | 11:00p | WRKO | |||
| Sunday, Mar. 23 | Sox vs. NPB Japan | 6:00a | WRKO | |||
| Friday, Mar. 28 | Sox vs. Dodgers | 10:35p | WRKO | |||
| Saturday, Mar. 29 | Sox vs. Dodgers | 10:05p | WRKO | NESN | ||
| Sunday, Mar. 30 | Sox vs. Dodgers | 4:05p | WRKO |
I think I am going to give blogging a try this season. My regular website, redsoxstats.com, is not really conducive to blogging and I would like to keep it numbers oriented. This outlet will allow me to type out the million random thoughts I have during the season and never shared before now. I am sure there will be plenty to discuss, be it stats, sabermetrics, trades, the minor leagues, or any of a million other things.
Pitchers and catchers report on February 14th.
