Mcleod, Epstein Discuss Top Three Red Sox Draft Picks

The Red Sox draft formula is nothing if not consistent. A signable high school position player with major upside but needs years to develop, a big time college arm in the bullpen who will probably start in the minors, and then take the kids that no one else can afford to sign.

28. Reymond Fuentes, HS, CF

“He became one of the kids we were really hoping would be there for us with our pick,” said scouting director Jason Mcleod. “Speed is going to be part of his game — he’s a plus-plus runner, sprinting champion on the island. We really think he has an opportunity to be a leadoff-type player who can give us good defense in centerfield and hopefully disrupt on the bases as well.”

77. Alex Wilson, NCAA, P

“He brings a power fastball-power curveball combination, he’s a real bulldog competitor on the mound. We really like the repertoire that he brings,” McLeod said.

107. David Renfroe, HS, SS/3B/P

At the moment, Epstein said, “His highest upside is as a position player. A potential impact bat. But certainly, there’s a lot to like as a pitcher as well.”

Of course the media will talk about Fuentes and Wilson the most, but those are the formula guys, and as Scott Boras says, the talent isn’t where you draft a kid, it’s who gets the most money… and David Renfroe is going to end up getting a truck load.

Todays’s expectations include a handful of singability kids and solid college players, while Thursday will be organizational fillers and some long-shot signability players.

Quote source: Providence Journal

Red Sox Pitching Prospects Major League Equivalency

Like some of the best baseball stats websites, I can visit MinorLeagueSplits.com and play around with their tools for an hour and not even realize it.

Tonight, while check out Clay Buchholz’s numbers I looked at his MLE’s, or Major League Equivalencies. Basically it takes his stats, adjusts for luck and the park and level he is pitching at in the minors, and spits out what his numbers could/should resemble if he was pitching for an average Major League Baseball team.

3.75 Fielding Independent Pitching ERA, 0.86 WHIP… not bad MLE’s for a guy currently being blocked by Brad Penny, and soon John Smoltz.

Interested, I decided to look at the rest of the Sox top starting pitching prospects that have been starting all season at one level or another. Below is the table, sorted by MLE FIP.

	IP		FIP	WHIP		K/9	BB/9	K/BB		HR/9		GB%	LD%	FB%
Buchholz	62.7		3.75	0.86		6.8	2.3	2.9		0.7		55%	13%	31%
Kelly	60.7		3.83	0.97		4.5	2.8	1.6		0.3		53%	12%	33%
Pimentel	49.3		4.38	1.66		4.2	4.0	1.0		0.4		46%	16%	35%
Bowden	58.7		4.49	1.30		4.8	4.3	1.1		0.5		37%	16%	45%
Tazawa	68.3		4.91	1.21		6.5	3.6	1.8		1.2		44%	13%	41%
Price	55.0		5.00	1.58		5.4	5.4	1.0		0.7		41%	13%	42%
Portice	47.0		5.02	1.45		7.1	3.6	1.9		1.3		44%	28%	24%
Doubront	51.7		5.37	1.59		6.8	5.8	1.2		1.1		49%	12%	38%
Weiland	50.0		5.63	1.82		5.2	6.1	0.9		0.9		52%	21%	27%
Huntzinger	44.7		6.14	1.57		4.2	5.6	0.8		1.2		47%	14%	38%

You have to be flat out ridiculous to pitch in the low levels of the minors and have a very good translation, and ridiculous is probably the best way to describe Casey Kelly’s 48.1 IP in Class-A and first 11.2 IP in Class-A Advanced.

Michael Bowden’s name has been brought up a lot this year around the Red Sox related interweb, mostly while talking about our amazing pitching depth and his 2.47 ERA for Triple-A Pawtucket. However, his pedestrian strikeout rate, coupled with his almost shocking walk rate and extreme fly ball tendency heeds caution. Hopefully he is “working on specific things” that have led to these developments and his numbers will correct over the course of the season.

Lars Anderson Heat Check

Lars Anderson is heating up with his third straight 2-hit game for Double-A Portland today…

	BA	OBP	SLG
Last 9 G	.389	.436	.611
Last 5 G	.556	.600	.889
Last 3 G	.600	.667	1.100

His monthly totals:

	AB	BA	OBP	SLG
April	75	.293	.341	.453
May	93	.194	.318	.376
June	27	.407	.467	.630

19-Year Old Casey Kelly Pulled After 6 Perfect Innings

6.0 IP | 0 H | 0 R | 0 BB |6 K

In a game that started after 11:00 PM because of a rain delay before the first game of a doubleheader, Casey Kelly faced 18 batters and retired them all before being removed by the Salem Red Sox manager.

Salem loaded the bases in the Top of the 7th, but then stuck out in three straight at-bats to keep the game tied at 0 and thus not giving Kelly the chance to pitch in the bottom of the 7th for a perfect game [minor league doubleheaders are 7 inning games].

It was Kelly’s second start after his promotion to the Carolina League after a dominating run through the South Atlantic League.

Only a handful of fans were in the stands for the game played on the road in Frederick, Maryland.

Kelly pitched like a machine. Fastballs were located on the paint, never over the heart of the plate, and his slider was devastating. His changeup and curve were also featured. The two hardest hit balls off of him were flyouts easily caught.

Earlier in the night Red Sox prospect Stephen Fife pitched five perfect innings for the Greenville Drive, striking out 7.

A Healthy Ryan Kalish Forces Promotion to AA

Fully recovered from a wrist injury that knocked him out of the 2007 and lingered throughout last year, Ryan Kalish destroyed the High-A Carolina League for a month and has now been promoted to Double-A Portland.

Kalish possess all 5-tools and has shown them off this year after some were down on him as a prospect because of his performance while playing with a injured wrist.

Hitting .304/.434/.504 with 4 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR and 8 SB over 32 games forced the Red Sox hand.

Kalish’s promotion brings another top level prospect into New England and will force out some “organizational filler” type players, which is nice for people attending games. Josh Reddick is in Florida rehabbing, but should back in Portland soon, giving the Sea Dogs a must-see outfield.

Clay Buchholz’s Morning Gem

8 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 0 BB, 11 K

A true masterpiece. The radio was saying that while everything was working, his changeup was truly “magical”. He wasn’t throwing his usual straight change, it must have been a circle change because they said was running deep in on right handed batters with screwball action.

Since his first start of the season, after which he went on the DL, Buchholz has put up these numbers:

31.3 IP, 13 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 34 K

After a good offseason, a great spring training, Clay is now having a great AAA season. We know Daisuke Matsuzaka is taking over for Justin Masterson in the rotation next week, how long until Buchholz takes over for Brad Penny?

Michael Bowden has a New Pitch

Before reporting to the minor league complex, Bowden met with Red Sox officials about what he was missing. His two-seam fastball and changeup both ran in toward righthanded batters, and his curveball broke straight down, “12 to 6,” Bowden said. He needed a pitch that would break away from righthanders – like a slider.

He threw it for the first time not in the bullpen, but during a minor league spring game. Since then, he’s tried three grips for the slider, and he experimented with a fourth this week while playing catch with Clay Buchholz.

“It’s still a work in progress,” Bowden said. “It’s showed improvement. I’ve just got to stick with it. I’m not expecting immediate results, but I’m getting some positive results.”

Source: Boston Globe

Just what people in baseball want to hear, one of the best Sox pitching prospect is getting better.

According to Pitch F/X his fastball is basically straight as an arrow, not really tailing. He changeup does have nice action in on right-handers, and he is now throwing it at 81 MPH instead of 85, which is a nice adjustment. He didn’t throw a curveball in his only MLB appearance this year.

Updated Red Sox Minor League Stats

Red Sox Minor League Hitting Studs and Duds

A few days short of a full month into the minor league season, I thought it would be a nice time to take a stroll through the Red Sox farm system and see who stands where. As we know from following baseball, players have good and bad months throughout the season, but everything is magnified in April. A great April can cover up a sub-par final five months of the season, the same as a bad April can disguise five months of great play.

The Pawtucket lineup is nothing to write home about, especially with Jeff Bailey and Jonathan Van Every playing for Boston. Zach Daeges is the only real prospect, but he only hit .172/.250/.241 in 32 PA before being moved to Florida to rehab his injured ankle. Dusty Brown had a nice season last year, but so far has been a disappointment hitting just .200/.333/.267 in 72 PA while striking out in 28% of his PA.

Up in Portland Josh Reddick is off to a nice start hitting .288/.358/.644 and walking in 10% of his PA. However, a strained oblique will likely keep Reddick out of action for two weeks. Jorge Jimenez has been a pleasant surprise posting a line of .346/.384/.494, however his .371 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is probable to regress. Everyone knows about Lars Anderson, and his first 90 PA of the year have been respectable at .277/.330/.434. Before Mark Wagner slightly injured his leg he was hitting a dreamy .267/.441/.511 with a BB/K of 1.50.

Our new High-A team is Salem is getting a treat by having a finally-healthy Ryan Kalish. In his first 97 PA Kalish is hitting .289/.444/.447 with 8 steals, his all-around game is something to be excited about. Che-Hsuan Lin might be the biggest disappointment on the young season with his .176/.266/.221 line. Lin’s 28% strikeout rate is a real problem, but his .255 BABIP should improve, especially for a player with his speed.

The extremely talented team is Greenville is led by Anthony Rizzo and his .280/.370/.430 line over 107 PA. Coming back from cancer, Rizzo is a 6′3, 240 pound monster of a first basemen who is shooting up the prospect rankings. 2007 first round pick [who was thought to be a bust], Ryan Dent is finally making a splash hitting .298/.397/.474, though aided by a .395 BABIP. Oscar Tejeda’s .219/.280/.323 over 105 PA is very discouraging.

Daniel Bard K’s the Side on 9 Pitches

Daniel Bard entered the AAA Pawtucket game [link] in the 9th inning, then did this:

Strike swinging
Foul
Strike swinging (Strikeout)

Strike swinging
Foul
Strike swinging (Strikeout)

Called strike
Strike swinging
Strike swinging (Strikeout)

9 pitches, 9 strikes, 6 swings and misses, 3 K’s all swinging.

Bard year to date: 9.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 16 K

….and yet, Javier Lopez is in the Red Sox bullpen.

Red Sox Prospect Casey Kelly Dominating A-Ball

Casey Kelly, the Red Sox first round pick last year, is off to a blistering start on the mound this season. Kelly, who will play shortstop once he reaches the 100 inning mark pitching, pitched his third straight gem this morning for Single-A Greenville.

Year to date, Kelly is at 15.0 innings pitched with only 10 hits and two walks allowed. He has struck out 12 and has yet to allow an earned run to score.

The Red Sox front office projects Kelly as a pitcher; however he prefers to play short, thus the compromise in allowing him some time in the field at the end of the season. If he continues to perform well, hopefully the Red Sox can talk him out of the promise to avoid potential injury.