Just a quick morning update… goes by all players that have played the position and have a UZR rating for that position on fangraphs.com. When I update in the future I’ll list each UZR per position and team overall. Sample size warning!
Left side of the field, awful.
Brett Gardner is good.
Very good defensive team.
Infield defense is crazy good, Vernon Wells is miserable.
What in the hell is up with Adam Jones and Nick Markakis?
After Jacoby Ellsbury hurt his shoulder making a fantastic diving catch in the 5th inning, Terry Francona must have told Rocco Baldelli that he was going to take over an outfield spot and to figure out with the right fielder Mark Kotsay who was going to play where.
In the dugout Kotsay and Baldelli were show holding a two-out-of-three rock-paper-scissors matchup, apparently won by Baldelli since when he entered the game he went to right and Kotsay moved over to center.
The not-so-good Red Sox defense, folks.
xERA has been a staple pitching statistic for a long time as another option to FIP and DIPS ERA estimation. Did you know the person behind xERA also developed a way to find a hitters xERA? Using Dwight Gill’s formulas, I have calculated the xERA’s of the Red Sox hitters.
Much more information about xERA can be found on xera-baseball.com.
| G | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | IP | xER | xERA | |||
| Kevin Youkilis | 40 | 172 | .362 | .483 | .659 | 1.142 | 31 | 32 | 9.35 | ||
| Jason Bay | 53 | 232 | .283 | .405 | .618 | 1.023 | 48 | 44 | 8.22 | ||
| Jason Varitek | 40 | 167 | .248 | .335 | .531 | .866 | 38 | 27 | 6.33 | ||
| Mike Lowell | 52 | 220 | .302 | .327 | .505 | .832 | 52 | 32 | 5.50 | ||
| J.D. Drew | 49 | 195 | .253 | .374 | .481 | .856 | 43 | 26 | 5.40 | ||
| Dustin Pedroia | 52 | 242 | .325 | .415 | .432 | .847 | 51 | 30 | 5.29 | ||
| Jeff Bailey | 23 | 81 | .188 | .309 | .391 | .700 | 20 | 9 | 4.01 | ||
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 52 | 241 | .313 | .351 | .379 | .731 | 57 | 24 | 3.83 | ||
| Nick Green | 37 | 122 | .288 | .352 | .414 | .767 | 29 | 12 | 3.82 | ||
| Rocco Baldelli | 16 | 52 | .265 | .308 | .449 | .757 | 13 | 5 | 3.76 | ||
| Julio Lugo | 25 | 88 | .266 | .341 | .354 | .695 | 20 | 8 | 3.58 | ||
| David Ortiz | 48 | 217 | .187 | .281 | .289 | .570 | 53 | 15 | 2.55 | ||
| George Kottaras | 19 | 55 | .188 | .255 | .292 | .546 | 14 | 4 | 2.36 |
After working out the formulas for expected earned runs created and innings batted, we are able to calculate how many expected earned runs a batter would score if he alone had all 27 outs to work with.
– League average xERA is about 4.60
– Youkilis is 4th in baseball behind Joe Mauer (13.25!!), Albert Pujols (10.52) and Manny Ramirez (9.53)
– Ortiz is 312th in baseball
– Delmon Young’s xERA is 0.96, I don’t even know what to say about how horrible that is.
David Ortiz:
| PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BABIP | |
| April | 100 | 10 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 22 | .230 | .290 | .333 | .623 | .290 |
| May | 99 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 23 | .146 | .293 | .244 | .537 | .190 |
When does it end?
FORT MYERS, Fla. — After recent “substantive” negotiations regarding a contract extension, the Red Sox and Jason Bay have postponed discussions for now because of the “unusual marketplace,” Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein said. Bay, who the Red Sox acquired last season from the Pittsburgh Pirates when they traded Manny Ramirez, is signed through the end of the 2009 season.
“There’s desire to get something done on both sides,” Epstein said. “There’s just a mutual recognition right now that it’s going to be next to impossible to get something done. It really boils down to the nature of the market right now, more than anything else.”
“We had some talks [earlier in the offseason], but they weren’t really substantive. Recently, we’ve had more substantive talks. It’s become clear that because of the unusual marketplace, we’re not going to get anything done during spring training. We’re going to sort of halt talks for now, just table them. But both sides have committed to maintaining good dialogue throughout the course of the season.”
Source: Boston Globe
Welp, there goes the hope that Jason Bay and his agent would jump at money in this uncertain time. It’s nice that they had some real discussions about the contract, Bay is one of the truly underrated superstars of baseball, but until he can gauge his market in the offseason it seems like he is willing to play out the final year of his deal.
Matt Holliday is also a free agent after the season, but it he puts up good numbers in the American League this year he will probably get a lot more money than Bay for not much more production.
We all know by now that Jason Varitek has until Saturday to accept the Red Sox’ 2-year contract offer, however this nugget in the Globe has me intrigued:
The Sox’ proposal contains standard award incentives (for MVP, Silver Slugger, and honors of that sort) that could increase the value of the package slightly, but there are no incentives based on the player’s health or playing time, both of which are often staples of incentive-laden contracts.
Link: Tony Massarotti
That basically eliminates the chances of Tek earning any of the $3m of incentives on top of his $5m 2009 base salary. It also will not hamper Terry Francona in his playing time decision making.
My stance has been that it’s time to cut the cord with Tek and trade for Miguel Montero, but when word of this offer broke I thought it would be enough to bring him back; however this new news has me thinking the chances of him coming back are again down to 50/50.
When Tek called John Henry for the face-to-face meeting I figured Scott Boras’ influence was now little in the negotiation process, but with the offer now roughly five days on the table, I think Tek alone would have informed the Red Sox one way or the other.
Maybe he has.
1. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox, 317
2. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins, 257
3. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox, 201
4. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins, 188
Some moron baseball writer decided that Pedroia was not worthy of being in the Top 10 on his MVP ballot. I can’t wait until WEEI finds him out and gets him on the phone. Unbelievable.
baseballwriters.org/awards/2008/2008_AL_mvp.html
UPDATE: Boston Globe
“Morneau and Youkilis were the only players named on all ballots. Pedroia was left off one ballot entirely — by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, who gave Youkilis his first-place vote. Both Boston writers voted Pedroia first.”
The numbers are pretty self explanatory. Jason Bay’s only “slash stat” that is down is on-base percentage, he is striking out more and walking less in the American League and that has taken his BB/K rate from good to poor. That should only be a blip as he is learning a whole new league of pitchers and has always been an excellent OBP guy.
Bay’s BABIP is high, but not shockingly so because his career level is .335. His power is almost identical, but his secondary average is down, that should rebound as he walks some more and steals a base here and there.
As you can see, his BaseRuns per plate appearance is exactly the same as it was in Pittsburg.
W: T. Wakefield (10-11)
L: C. Lee (22-3)
S: J. Papelbon (41)
The Boston Red Sox will be defending their World Series Championship in the playoffs this October.
1-3, triple, 2 walks, hit by pitch, 2 runs scored
Plus he had a sliding catch near the foul line saving a run and he held a runner to a single on a ball off the wall.
Not to mention going first-to-third twice on base hits.
What’s he going to do tomorrow when he is not playing on zero sleep?
